The "Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of the Power System" (hereinafter referred to as the "Program") was published on the 23rd. The core content of this round of deepening power system reform can be summarized as managing the power grid, liberalizing electricity prices, and actively trading.

The focus and path of this round of reform is “three liberalization, one independent and three reinforcements”. "Three Releases" means that in accordance with the institutional structure of controlling the middle and releasing the two ends, the price of competitive links other than transmission and distribution will be released in an orderly manner; the distribution of electricity to the social capital will be released in an orderly manner; the public welfare and regulation will be released in an orderly manner. A power generation plan other than sex.

“Independent” means promoting the relative independence of the trading institutions and standard operation. “Three Strengthening” refers to continuing to deepen the research on the regional power grid construction and the transmission and distribution system suitable for China's national conditions, further strengthen government supervision; further strengthen power generation planning; further strengthen power safety and efficient operation and reliable supply.

 It is worth mentioning that although the grid has not been split, but the profit model of the grid has been changed, and the grid has been changed from a profitable unit to a public utility unit, and only the “toll fee” under government supervision can be collected.

Reform
Release of the distribution business to social capital
The "Proposal" was issued in a high-profile manner under the name of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (Zhongfa [2015] No. 9), highlighting the government's determination to reform the power. Looking at the full text, the key tasks of this round of electricity reform are seven large and twenty-eight strips. The core content can be summarized as: managing the grid, liberalizing the price of electricity, and actively trading (ie, the traditional "putting the two ends, the middle of the tube").

Among them, the electricity price reform is listed in the first of the seven major articles. The verification of the transmission and distribution price is the first step to promote the electricity price reform in an orderly manner. The second step is to distribute the price of electricity sold outside the public welfare, which is formed by the market. Properly handle the cross-subsidy of electricity prices.

After the reform, the electricity price will be mainly divided into power generation price, transmission and distribution price, and electricity sales price. The transmission and distribution price will be determined by the government, and the price of electricity sold will be formed by the market step by step. Residents, agriculture, important public utilities and public welfare services. Continue to implement government pricing when electricity is used. Therefore, the variable of this round of electricity reform is mainly the price of electricity sold in competitive links.

On the basis of further improving the separation of government and enterprises, the separation of factories and networks, and the separation of main and auxiliary, in accordance with the institutional structure of “management of the middle and release of the two ends”, orderly release the price of competitive links other than transmission and distribution, orderly to social capital. The distribution of electricity business will be liberalized, and the power generation plans other than public welfare and regulation will be released in an orderly manner.

According to a research report issued by Guotai Junan, according to the latest Electricity Price Supervision Report disclosed by the China Electricity Regulatory Commission, the national average selling price is 0.492 yuan/kWh. In 2014, the total electricity consumption in China was 5.52 trillion kWh. Simple calculation of the national electricity sales market capacity of 2.72 trillion yuan, if the first industry and urban and rural residents use electricity, the market capacity is about 2.3 trillion yuan.

However, from the content of the "Program", taking into account "replacement in place" and "guarantee stability" become its two key words. In the "Program", the frequency of "order", "step by step" and "step by step" appeared 16 times, 5 times and 2 times respectively, reflecting the cautious attitude of the decision-making department to "guarantee stability".

Influences
Or will spawn a trillion-level "emerging" market
Another highlight of the new power reform program is the opening of a “meeting” channel for buyers and sellers of electric goods – the power generation industry has always been isolated from users, while the power generation side and the sale side’s electricity price and access will be released. A huge “emerging” market where producers and users can “meet” directly and have long-term potential transactions in excess of one trillion.

"Let the sale side, although residents, agriculture, important public utilities and public welfare services continue to implement government pricing, but the industrial and commercial electricity trading market, which accounts for about 80% of the country's electricity consumption, is also a big one. Cake," said Han Xiaoping, CEO of China Energy Network.

The "Proposal" proposes to steadily promote the reform of the power-sales side and orderly release the distribution of electricity business to social capital. Among them, the new market entities include: qualified high-tech industrial parks or economic and technological development zones, and the formation of electricity-selling entities to purchase electricity directly; social capital investment to establish power sales entities, to purchase electricity from power generation enterprises to sell to users; Users or micro-grid systems participate in power trading; public service industries such as water supply, gas supply, and heating, and energy-saving service companies are engaged in power sales; eligible power generation companies invest and set up power sales entities to enter the electricity sales market.

There are also broken and standing. At the same time, the "Proposal" proposes to set up and standardize the operation of the power trading institution, and separate the trading business originally undertaken by the power grid enterprise from other businesses, so that the trading institutions can operate relatively independently. The power trading institutions provide services for power market transactions in accordance with government-approved rules and regulations, and relevant government departments implement effective supervision of power trading institutions based on their duties.

The “Solution” has repositioned the grid enterprises. The document mentions that the grid enterprises will mainly engage in power grid investment operation, power transmission and distribution, and responsible for grid system security in the future, ensuring fairness and non-discrimination of power grids, and fulfilling the universal service obligation of electricity according to national regulations. Improve the separation of the main and auxiliary.

In this regard, Guotai Junan analyst Wang Wei said that in this "emerging" market, the penetration rate of various business models or "playing methods" is basically "zero", which is enough to make the capital market excited, especially in the pan-energy Internet "It is in the stage of expected gradual emergence, and the imagination of the relevant participants can be imagined; users are allowed to participate in direct transactions in batches by voltage level. Units participating in direct enterprises should meet national standards for energy consumption and environmental protection. Enterprises that do not comply with national industrial policies and whose products and processes are eliminated should not participate in direct transactions.